The Concept of Value in Sports Betting!


Let me explain this last statement. I actually lose more bets than I win – but the prices or odds at which I bet compensate for the losing plays.

The odds are’short’ and also you can perform to attempt to predict when these teams might falter – and bet against them in the over inflated prices being offered on the teams. These opposing teams will probably provide the value – as they’re perhaps not the favorite betting choice.

When we a coin, then we know that the genuine likelihood of it turning up heads or tails is 50 percent or’evens’ (1/1).

As an example we put a’coin turning’ betting event. A neutral party begins to flip the coin. With each subsequent flip there is a clear taste for heads at the betting. The bookmaker or sportsbook takes this in his stride, and he has set the likelihood in 10/11 (-110 US) for either outcome that takes into account his commission. He knows that this trend is quite usual as heads can be favored in this sort of event. He decides, but to balance his novels a bit by lowering his odds on heads on 5/6 and increasing tails to 1/1.

Heads is now a much shorter price and reflects no worth. Tails today stands at a slightly better price but still only represents the’true odds’ or chances of winning in 1/1 or even 50% therefore is perhaps not value.

The event continues and still the gambling favors heads. Why? The’average bettor’ will not really know’value’,” he fails to know that heads might be a lousy bet or hold no value. He just enjoys gambling and since’heads’ is winning – he wants to bet on heads.

The book-maker balances his books with a dramatic shortening of the odds for heads to 4/9 and a lengthening to 6/4 (+150 US), on tails.

At this point the qualified bettor will intervene and start to place stakes. He knows that he has gained significance at 6/4 for an event where the’true odds’ of succeeding are 1/1.

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